Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.347917 0.405458 0.467959 0.540688 0.622781 0.712360 0.817281
2025-05-04 0.269570 0.344768 0.432790 0.542672 0.675345 0.829503 1.021249
2025-05-11 0.210897 0.295213 0.401229 0.542542 0.723966 0.946910 1.239155
2025-05-18 0.155383 0.239219 0.352755 0.514486 0.735135 1.021404 1.415880
2025-05-25 0.111886 0.190470 0.305427 0.480588 0.734391 1.081488 1.583114
2025-06-01 0.085298 0.160448 0.278979 0.471550 0.766672 1.190173 1.828974
2025-06-08 0.064327 0.134261 0.253399 0.459762 0.793846 1.295924 2.084514
2025-06-15 0.052152 0.120138 0.244580 0.473080 0.861554 1.469524 2.458445
2025-06-22 0.037842 0.097784 0.216874 0.450251 0.868815 1.553051 2.708123
2025-06-29 0.028154 0.081673 0.196952 0.437459 0.891121 1.663310 3.011897
2025-07-06 0.020627 0.067608 0.177609 0.422048 0.906669 1.764596 3.312582
2025-07-13 0.016598 0.060699 0.171804 0.432431 0.971291 1.956867 3.783447
2025-07-20 0.012510 0.052027 0.160307 0.430217 1.014685 2.122279 4.235008
2025-07-27 0.009741 0.045951 0.153476 0.437167 1.078135 2.332468 4.787731
2025-08-03 0.007484 0.040300 0.146095 0.441548 1.137582 2.542860 5.362819
2025-08-10 0.005140 0.032583 0.130217 0.421621 1.141865 2.648372 5.756940
2025-08-17 0.003364 0.025620 0.113736 0.395883 1.128812 2.718244 6.091640
2025-08-24 0.002407 0.021674 0.105494 0.390593 1.162904 2.888828 6.637914
2025-08-31 0.001678 0.018116 0.097031 0.382502 1.189040 3.045917 7.172445
2025-09-07 0.001319 0.016534 0.095567 0.395584 1.271146 3.333216 7.995451
2025-09-14 0.000846 0.013236 0.085206 0.377334 1.268500 3.432745 8.440528
2025-09-21 0.000562 0.010942 0.077974 0.367433 1.286720 3.581608 9.002146
2025-09-28 0.000358 0.008911 0.070685 0.355047 1.295816 3.710187 9.531106